BEVERLY HILLS, MICHIGAN – Buckingham Avenue is set to host its first ever major tournament tomorrow. The crisp September air brought about tranquility for the tournament crew as they diligently continued preparations throughout the eve of the 2020 Singles Tournament.
Yet, that beautiful and serene site will turn to chaos in less than 24 hours. Let’s dive into the 2020 Singles Tournament preview and discuss three things to watch for, two questions and one prediction.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH FOR
- This is the third annual installment of the Singles Tournament, and historically we haven’t had many upsets in this tournament. But history isn’t always the best indicator of things to come. There are some intriguing first round match-ups that could be ripe for upsets.
- #5 JV vs. #12 Steve-O – JV is a dynamite tournament player, but that’s in a doubles format. He struggles to get the engine going in Singles Tournaments, and Steve-O has been spectacular in his last two tournaments (albeit, in doubles format). Steve-O hasn’t played a regular season event yet, so he was given the lowest seed based on the combination of not having any 2020 data and consulting his KPM from the prior few years. Despite honest attempts to rank Steve-O, he is likely under-seeded and that could cause trouble for JV.
- #7 Turley vs. #10 Coach Mike – through 10 weeks of the 2020 season I would’ve picked Turley to win this match every day and twice on Sunday. But a month-long hiatus and new pancake toss upon return has given Coach the jolt he needs for the stretch run of the season. Be careful with this one because Coach Mike has been a different player the last two weeks.
- “Party of Five” – no, not the show with buttermilk biscuits Jennifer Love Hewitt and Lacey Chabert…though I wish they were part of LEG…I’m talking about the cluster of players who are separated by 0.6 KPM points.
- #6 Erik – 10.8
- #7 Turley – 10.8 (he lost out on the #6 seed by hundredths of a point)
- #8 Bushie – 10.6
- #9 Paul – 10.5
- #10 Coach Mike – 10.2
Not speaking to a specific match-up, but in general these guys could create havoc and flip this entire tournament on its head, especially given the handicap system that will be in place (more on that later). Don’t be surprised to see at least two of the players from this group make a deep run.
- Two former champions reside at #1 and #2 (Nick and Dibble, respectively), and the runner-up to both of those champions sits at #4 (Galz). It will be very interesting to see what these guys do on Saturday. The championship matches between Galz and Nick in 2018 and Galz and Dibble in 2019 were epic battles. But every player has improved since those title bouts, and this marks the first time all three have participated in the same Singles Tournament. All of them are super close in cumulative head-to-head scoring this season:
- Nick vs. Galz – Nick holds the edge, 364 – 349
- Nick vs. Dibble – Nick narrowly holds the edge, 177 – 176
- Galz vs. Dibble – Galz holds the edge, 293 – 282
As you can see, not much separates them in a head-to-head format this season. Only one can be the top dog. These guys will go head-to-head, it’s just a matter of when. Matches between these players will be events that cause all other games to pause so that every player can watch.
- Watch out for #6 Erik. Erik has to get through #11 Jack in the first round, but if he does, a second round date with #3 KP awaits him. KP should be on upset alert right meeeeoooow. Erik has been a boss lately, recording KPMs of 13.3, 11.0, 16.1, 9.7 (a bit of a down week), 11.5, and 13.2 in weeks 7 – 12, respectively. This last half of the season he’s elevated his game, including beating up on some of the top ranked players. Combine that with the confidence he should carryover from the 2020 Preseason Kick-Off, where he finished runner-up and was voted to the all-tournament team, and he has the makings of a Cinderella run.
TWO QUESTIONS
- How much will the handicap system impact the tournament outcome? This year a handicap system was developed by KP, JV, Erik and Nick with the goal of leveling the playing field as much as possible.
All 12 players voted on the option of a handicap system, or modifying the triple elimination tournament to be double elimination for the top four players (Nick, Dibble, Galz and KP) while all other players continued under triple elimination.
The handicap system won, 8-3-1, with the “1” being Steve-O saying neither approach mattered to him. As if we couldn’t see that answer coming…
So, that’s when KP, JV, Erik and Nick went to work devising a formula that produced sensible handicaps. Different methods were tested, including using player differentials in gross points per round and player differentials in KPM. Ultimately, the different methods produced almost the same exact results, which told the foursome they were either really smart and nailed the concept, or they were all really dumb.
The detailed handicap calculation and outcome will be available Saturday for each respective head-to-head match-up.
The handicap is critical against seeds #1 – #4, where Jack, for example, begins with an 11-0 lead if/when he plays any of the top four seeds. But, the handicap still applies against the entire field, so when Jack plays Paul, as another example, he will start with a 4-0 lead. It will be interesting to see how the higher seeds will handle the stress and adversity of starting in the hole before any bags are thrown.
The handicap could be a game changer, and if it does deliver Cinderella stories, the foursome who created the methodology will look even more genius.
- Will one of the championship participants emerge from the Winner’s Bracket? More often than not, one player or team goes undefeated during tournament play and solidifies their spot in the title match with an unblemished record. This creates an incredibly difficult task for the title match challenger because they are saddled with two losses and have to beat their undefeated opponent three times to earn a championship.
It’s one of the most intriguing aspects of any tournament because the drama of the title match is directly linked to how difficult the odds are to overcome for the player/team coming from the Double Loser’s Bracket.
My guess is that nobody goes unscathed before reaching the championship and we will see a title match between a player from the Loser’s Bracket (i.e., someone with one loss) and a player from the Double Loser’s Bracket (i.e., someone with two losses). If that happens, we could have a championship match for the record books.
ONE PREDICTION
I can’t let myself off the hook without making a prediction of who wins the tournament. I can’t help but feel influence from outside forces as I ponder my prediction. Tonight I watched the #1 seed in the NBA’s Eastern Conference, the Milwaukee Bucks, go down 0-3 in the conference semifinals to the Miami Heat. I also watched the #1 seed in the Western Conference, the LA Lakers, get blasted in their Game 1 match-up with the Houston Rockets.
Needless to say, things are wild right now, and being the favorite doesn’t mean much. The Bucks are done. The Lakers have time to bounce back, and certainly a four game series favors them, just like a triple elimination favors the top few guys.
Yet, I’m finding myself leaning toward a chaotic tournament. I think Nick and Dibble play well, but I think several other guys do as well and become road blocks for them to claim a championship. After being a bridesmaid twice, this feels like it’s Galz’s time to strap-on the belt. He wants it badly, though it’s not clear to me if he wants it for pride and bragging rights, or if it would go well with his collection of leather and BDSM toys.
Regardless his reasons for desiring the belt so badly, I predict Galz becomes just the second guy to hold a title in both the singles and doubles format, joining Nick.