BEVERLY HILLS, MICHIGAN – Ordinarily, the Draft Lottery is held the day of a tournament, moments before the tournament begins. The process has always been this way because it creates suspense, uncertainty, and doesn’t allow partners much time to develop a strategy and team chemistry.
For the first time ever, teams were drafted in advance of the 2020 Postseason Tournament. The tournament theme is “Halloween” and we wanted to give partners the opportunity to coordinate their costumes ahead of time.
So, this tournament preview will be a bit different than normal because we can analyze known teams and their chances of claiming The Cup, rather than speculating about individual players heading into a tournament.
DRAFT LOTTERY
Monday night 14 players gathered on Zoom for the much-anticipated Draft Lottery. Six players were given the best odds at the #1 overall pick with seven lottery balls each – Jack and Bob, who were the last two players in the Power Rankings, along with four unranked players who haven’t appeared in a 2020 regular season match (Steve-O, Justin, Matt, and Dan).
The complete Draft Lottery odds are summarized in the table below.
| Player | Power Ranking | Lottery Balls | Odds for #1 Pick |
| Steve-O | Not Ranked | 7 | 11% |
| Justin | Not Ranked | 7 | 11% |
| Matt | Not Ranked | 7 | 11% |
| Dan | Not Ranked | 7 | 11% |
| Bob | 15 | 7 | 11% |
| Jack | 14 | 7 | 11% |
| Paul | 11 | 4 | 7% |
| Bushie | 10 | 4 | 7% |
| Turley | 8 | 3 | 5% |
| JV | 7 | 3 | 5% |
| Barker | 6 | 2 | 3% |
| Galz | 4 | 1 | 2% |
| KP | 2 | 1 | 2% |
| Nick | 1 | 1 | 2% |
As you can see, the players ranked higher in the Power Rankings had the worst odds for the #1 pick, which means the lottery is designed to significantly reduce the odds of a team being stacked with two highly ranked players.
The lottery wheel started spinning and out dropped the first ball…Matt!
The lottery wheel continued to spin and a second ball dropped, revealed Barker as the #2 pick! Two picks in and the Draft Lottery is already chaotic. Barker had just a 3% chance at the #1 pick, and after Matt earned that honor, Barker had only a 3.7% chance (2 out of 54 balls) at receiving the #2 pick!
The #3 and #4 picks stayed true to the odds with Bob and Jack earning those picks, respectively. Bob was ecstatic to receive the #3 pick because he knew he’d more than likely partner with one of Nick, Galz, or KP.
At #5 things got wild again. The lottery wheel selected JV’s ball despite only a 7.8% chance to earn that pick, compared to Steve-O, Justin, and Dan having an 18.4% chance at the #5 pick.
Paul received the #6 pick, which again went against the odds, meaning at least two of Steve-O, Justin, and Dan would not receive the #7 and final pick.
A few more rotations of the wheel and the final ball dropped. The #7 pick of the 2020 Postseason Tournament goes to Galz! He had just a 2.9% chance of getting that pick.
Meanwhile, Bob’s disappointment was visible on the Zoom call. Even with the #3 pick, he was now likely to miss out on a partnership with all three of the top ranked players.
The results of the draft are listed below.
| Pick | Player | Partner Picked |
| 1 | Matt | KP |
| 2 | Barker | Nick |
| 3 | Bob | Turley |
| 4 | Jack | Justin |
| 5 | JV | Steve-O |
| 6 | Paul | Bushie |
| 7 | Galz | Dan |
A CUT ABOVE THE REST
When scrolling through the teams it doesn’t take long to identify the favorites. Barker and Nick, the #6 and #1 players in the Power Rankings, respectively, jump off the page.
These two players combine for five LEG titles – two doubles tournament championships each and Nick adds a Singles Tournament. Without a doubt, Nick and Barker are the favorites to win The Cup, adding a third doubles tournament championship to their resumes.
Where this gets interesting is if these two can withstand the enormous target on their backs. Barker has been talking shit for weeks, including 48 straight hours of chirping in KP’s ear, boasting about how he’s the better player.
Nick doubled-down this week when KP had The Cup engraved for the 2020 Preseason Kick-Off title won by Nick and Steve-O. Knowing The Cup was getting engraved, he texted KP, “Might as well just put “XYZ” on there too 😉” (“XYZ” is a placeholder for Nick and Barker’s team name, which I won’t reveal in advance of the tournament).
Clearly Nick and Barker believe they are the favorites, and they are confident they’ll win the title Saturday. Question is, can their skills cash the check their mouths have written?
DARK HORSES
The remaining six teams are all balanced, at least on paper, and each of them has a legit shot to make a run at a title.
That being said, a few teams that I expect to make noise are Galz and Dan, as well as JV and Steve-O.
Dan was the last player to be selected in the draft, awkwardly waiting like the last kid picked for dodgeball in P.E. class. The difference is the kid in P.E. class is a known commodity and team captains purposefully avoid picking him. Dan, on the other hand, is an unknown to several guys in this league because he has only played in tournaments. So, guys like Bob and Jack don’t know Dan’s skills, and JV and Paul were always too smashed to remember how Dan plays.
Galz should feel good about the partner he received. Dan is ultra-competitive and athletic (point of clarification: he is not ultra-athletic), though he can’t make free throws to save his life. When you mix that with Galz’s tournament experience and past success, this team should vie for a title.
JV has two LEG championships under his belt, while Steve-O won his first in the 2020 Preseason Kick-off. Steve-O also made a run to the semifinals in the 2020 Singles Tournament, including handing Nick and KP upset losses along the way. He’s played exceptionally in 2020 and there’s no reason to think Saturday will be any different.
Meanwhile, JV has put up good numbers during the 2020 regular season, but he has also struggled for most of the year. Something has been off, despite his solid numbers. Last night while playing the week 16 schedule, it became clear what was missing – his killer instinct. JV thrives with the pressure on, and would rather throw bags with everything on the line. JV struggles to focus if there isn’t pressure.
Well, last night that killer instinct returned. The switch came back on and he looked like the player who won two titles in 2018 and finished runner-up in the 2019 Postseason Tournament, almost bringing his team back to win three straight games in the finals.
Steve-O and JV should have excellent chemistry, and both seems to be on an upward trend going into the tournament.
THE REST OF THE PACK
Let’s go rapid fire and touch on each of the remaining teams.
Matt & KP – this duo should also have an excellent shot. Matt was a mid-tournament substitute as Galz’s partner in the 2019 Preseason Kick-off and he won that championship with Galz. The downfall is that Matt has not played since then, and we don’t know what kind of rust might be on his game. Nonetheless, this 2020 Postseason Tournament will technically be a title defense for him and KP isn’t a bad running mate to have.
Bob & Turley – I LOVE TURLEY! I’m talking about his cornhole abilities, but I also love him. Who doesn’t? Turley is in the running for Most Improved Player, and he has the skills to lead a team on a deep tournament run. The question will be, is this the year he does it? Bob is also playing in his first LEG tournament, and that can be quite overwhelming. If Bob can fight through the nerves and slippery slope of a blackout (hey, we’ve all been there at one of these tournaments), I think these guys can make some noise.
Jack & Justin – Jack played well in the 2020 Preseason Kick-off, and has shown flashes of being a player capable of a 10.0+ KPM. Justin, on the other hand, has been a 10.0+ KPM player in 2019 (11.2 KPM) and 2018 (10.3 KPM). The success of these guys boils down to reps. Jack has only played 13 games this season (plus the Preseason Kick-off Tournament), while Justin hasn’t played in more than 12 months. If the lack of reps doesn’t hamper them, they have the talent to survive deep into the tournament.
Paul & Bushie – Oil and water. These guys aren’t the perfect mix. In fact, they bicker and rag on each other almost every Thursday. Even when Paul picked Bushie on Monday night, Bushie was trying to urge Paul to pick Dan instead. As Paul pondered his #6 pick he said, “What do you think, Bushie?” and before he could formalize his pick Bushie interjected, “Pick Dan!”
Chemistry could be an issue here. Exceeding their PAL (premium alcohol level) could also be an issue here. All that said, both guys are playing well right now. Bushie revamped his throw to a more consistent flat bag, while Paul has more confidence than he’s ever had and isn’t intimidated by anyone. This could be a great success, or it could be a goddam train wreck. Saturday will be fun to watch with this team.
PREDICTION
The easiest thing to predict would be a Nick and Barker championship. But I’m not going to do that. Why? Because I don’t believe it will happen. Draft Lottery chaos paired them together against the odds, and I think tournament chaos will keep them from becoming champions.
I really like Galz and Dan in this tournament. Galz has one title and has regularly made deep runs in other tournaments. Dan is also capable of elevating his game to be the Robin to Galz’s Batman. Don’t sleep on this team. My prediction is they drink from The Cup Saturday afternoon.